Look at this stupid tweet I found

stupider than the other tweets

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pterrus
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:43 am

Can't get one past me, I'm 99.68 percentile in probabilistic reasoning.

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:51 am

that question is sort of ambiguous. what size is each players' deck and how many sol rings are in each of them? what does turn 1 mean - like each player's opening hands with no mulligans, ignoring needing a source of mana to play the sol ring or the possibility of other weird stuff that messes with opening hands? does commander have special rules that i don't understand? i googled a thing and it just said 99 cards (but not highlander? is commander different from EDH? I thought those were the same)

seems pretty simple to hypergeometric it out once you define the question - it's 1 - P(a player doesn't have sol ring)^4
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:54 am

A Commander deck is 100 cards and you can’t have more than one of any card that isn’t a basic land.
ok so then P(not drawing sol ring) = 0.93 -> 1 - (0.93)^4 = 0.25194799
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:56 am

Yes decks are 99 cards and each has one sol ring and your solution is correct. You don't need a hypergeometric it's just 91/99 that one player doesn't have it.

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:56 am

oh whoops i used 100 when i should have used 99 so it's actually 0.92929 and not 0.93 so 0.25422974923

where is he getting 36 from, that number makes no sense to me
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:57 am

That was re your first post, you're missing that everyone gets a turn 1 draw. I get 28.6%.

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:57 am

pterrus wrote:Yes decks are 99 cards and each has one sol ring and your solution is correct. You don't need a hypergeometric it's just 91/99 that one player doesn't have it.
i think you mean 92/99, unless again I don't understand something
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Hyphen-ated » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:59 am

Crunchums wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:56 am where is he getting 36 from, that number makes no sense to me
he multiplied 4 * 8 for the total number of cards in the players' hands and his result was 36

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:59 am

ah ok

so then 0.91919 but you're right that the hypergeometric calculator isn't necessary
1-((91/99)^4) = 0.28612069708
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:00 am

Crunchums wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:57 am
pterrus wrote:Yes decks are 99 cards and each has one sol ring and your solution is correct. You don't need a hypergeometric it's just 91/99 that one player doesn't have it.
i think you mean 92/99, unless again I don't understand something
Everyone gets a turn 1 draw in multiplayer

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:01 am

Crunchums wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:59 am ah ok

so then 0.91919 but you're right that the hypergeometric calculator isn't necessary
1-((91/99)^4) = 0.28612069708
:hfive:

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:02 am

pterrus wrote:That was re your first post, you're missing that everyone gets a turn 1 draw.
even the first player? PPE: ok, didn't know that
Hyphen-ated wrote:
Crunchums wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:56 am where is he getting 36 from, that number makes no sense to me
he multiplied 4 * 8 for the total number of cards in the players' hands and his result was 36
ah, lol
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:02 am

combinatorics is fun
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:06 am

It's funny in reflection how one tweet where someone is confidently wrong can completely destroy their credibility with me. Like how can I trust jorbs about any probability thing again, fuck.

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Rylinks » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:07 am

i think anyone can make math mistakes

i made a dumb thermodynamics mistake when lecturing a month ago

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:23 am

i'm curious if his approach was correct and his only error was using 36 instead of 32
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Hyphen-ated » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:25 am

pterrus wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:06 am It's funny in reflection how one tweet where someone is confidently wrong can completely destroy their credibility with me. Like how can I trust jorbs about any probability thing again, fuck.
once i was watching another streamer while he made a similar math mistake. he was arrogant and rude to the people in his chat who were saying like "wait isn't the answer X because <reasonable argument>?" so i pretty much stopped watching the guy forever at that moment

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:25 am

Crunchums wrote:i'm curious if his approach was correct and his only error was using 36 instead of 32
i think his approach actually is wildly wrong though?
there aren't 396 choose 32 possible starting arrangements of cards, there are (99 choose 8) * 4
396 choose 32 would be if you shuffled all four players' decks together and then drew 32 cards
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:35 am

Crunchums wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:25 am
Crunchums wrote:i'm curious if his approach was correct and his only error was using 36 instead of 32
i think his approach actually is wildly wrong though?
there aren't 396 choose 32 possible starting arrangements of cards, there are (99 choose 8) * 4
396 choose 32 would be if you shuffled all four players' decks together and then drew 32 cards
Yes I would characterize it as wildly wrong unless actually he is a genius on some level I don't comprehend.

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by pterrus » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:38 am

He was off by 40 percent!

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:44 am

you mean 40 percentage points Image
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Skeletor » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:50 am

Rylinks wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:07 am i think anyone can make math mistakes

i made a dumb thermodynamics mistake when lecturing a month ago
not me im perfect
wow, [you]. that all sounds terrible. i hope it gets better for you

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Skeletor » Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:59 am

pterrus wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 4:38 am He was off by 40 percent!
his approach gives 29% vs the correct 25% right? if the right numbers are used
wow, [you]. that all sounds terrible. i hope it gets better for you

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Skeletor » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:01 am

so his mistakes were:
- wrong approach
- wrong numbers plugged in
- interpreted the answer he got wrong or just forgot to subtract from 100% (despite stating it right that it was odds of nobody having it!)
- using twitter
- not realizing his answer made no intuitive sense

the last two are most egregious
wow, [you]. that all sounds terrible. i hope it gets better for you

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Blissful » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:24 am

Skeletor wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:01 am so his mistakes were:
- wrong approach
- wrong numbers plugged in
- interpreted the answer he got wrong or just forgot to subtract from 100% (despite stating it right that it was odds of nobody having it!)
- using twitter
- not realizing his answer made no intuitive sense

the last two are most egregious
good summary
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Ashenai » Thu Dec 29, 2022 9:28 am

- youtuber faces

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Blissful » Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:28 am

the youtuber faces make him money ashenai
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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Ashenai » Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:41 am

- making money

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by Crunchums » Fri Dec 30, 2022 12:08 am

u gotta skate

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Re: Look at this stupid tweet I found

Post by s. goblin » Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:39 pm

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