POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Probably what *this* should be called.
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Grakthis
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POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Grakthis » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:44 pm

So, we now have video and audio of a Fox News interview that is set to air tonight where Trump admits he knew about the payments made on his behalf.

Which means that he failed to disclose them, which would be required in his campaign finance forms even if the money didn't come out of the campaign. Which means he knowingly committed fraud and has admitted to it. Though likely the punishment for this is just that he has to go back and amend his forms and pay a fine, but that would be an admission on his part of everything which I am skeptical he woudl be willign to do.
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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Fry Guy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:46 pm

His primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Yoss » Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:46 pm

If trump gets impeached, I’m gonna celebrate like New Years times a thousand, I might die

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by seathesee » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:43 pm

i think trump getting impeached would not be good for the democrat party.
with love, your good friend, seathesee

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by rianalnn » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:48 pm

Look, a lot of things are going to get broken before they get fixed. It's omelette time.

From: vicious_bastard
Subject: crippled masters

Bring on the kung-fu amputees - no arms vs. no legs anyone? A bit of high-speed underground ninja-tunneling is always good as well. I wanna see some shit like that. Crazy monks with gnarly special powers can make any film good. FACT.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Fry Guy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:53 pm

Donald Trump tells person on twitter to "suck my dick and balls" then finds out person is on the Global Earth Council and is fired.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Grakthis » Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:59 pm

GOD DAMMIT ARTI. YOU DIDN'T BLOCK SEA.
:grakiswrong:

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Yoss » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:00 pm

seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:43 pm i think trump getting impeached would not be good for the democrat party.
idgaf about the Democrat party

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by seathesee » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:04 pm

Grakthis wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:59 pm GOD DAMMIT ARTI. YOU DIDN'T BLOCK SEA.
*dances around making faces*
with love, your good friend, seathesee

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Doug » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:09 pm

First toxic thread
It's your turn in Cthulhu Wars
It's your turn in Squirrel Wars
It's your turn in Demon Wars
It's your turn in Wall Street Wars

http://devilsbiscuit.com/

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Grakthis » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:18 pm

I WIN
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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Dantes » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:11 pm

Any other time this would probably end a presidency. I have no idea what's going to happen now.

If Cohen has actual damning evidence, why couldn't he get a deal? Basically, I completely believe that Cohen paid off Stormy at Trump's direction, that there was so little difference between Trump and his campaign that he probably used campaign funds, but I am skeptical that Cohen can prove it, and I am very skeptical that the testimony of a snake like Cohen could actually get a conviction.
Pour like Hemingway's last call.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Fry Guy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:28 pm

Are you sure Cohen didn't make a deal for the guilty plea? He almost certainly did, since he announced he wouldn't be taking any Pardon given by Trump.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Grakthis » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:33 pm

Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:11 pm Any other time this would probably end a presidency. I have no idea what's going to happen now.

If Cohen has actual damning evidence, why couldn't he get a deal? Basically, I completely believe that Cohen paid off Stormy at Trump's direction, that there was so little difference between Trump and his campaign that he probably used campaign funds, but I am skeptical that Cohen can prove it, and I am very skeptical that the testimony of a snake like Cohen could actually get a conviction.
He has like 2 more sets of charges to deal with potentially, so it seems he did cut a deal. He pled guilty and put facts on record, which now makes him available to be used in other cases. Like, Avenatti's or the state of NYs, both of whom have subpoenaed him already. All of that will be accounted for in how things move forward from here.
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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Yoss » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:39 pm

I think Cohen is a scumbag piece of shit, but so is trump, and the latter surrounded himself with those of a similar ilk and they will be his undoing

Complaining that Trump’s co-conspirators are criminals and liars, and thus lack credibility, is fucking laughable. Everyone in his inner circle is a lying criminal. You can’t find someone wholesome and honest to testify against trump because those people stayed the fuck away from his criminal shit. What a fucking tautology.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by seathesee » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:44 pm

It's almost the perfect strategy
with love, your good friend, seathesee

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Yoss » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:49 pm

Your honor,

I stole candy from all those babies with and at the direction of the defendant. I gleefully murdered witnesses and terrorized the day care.

You can trust me, because of my nobel prizes, service as poet laureate, and incalculable donations of my time and money to humanitarian aid. I gave that candy to starving children, your honor. I regret nothing. Thanks for my plea deal, btw

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Dantes » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:54 pm

seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:43 pm i think trump getting impeached would not be good for the democrat party.
BTW, what did you mean by this?
Pour like Hemingway's last call.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Dantes » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:01 pm

Yoss wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:39 pm I think Cohen is a scumbag piece of shit, but so is trump, and the latter surrounded himself with those of a similar ilk and they will be his undoing

Complaining that Trump’s co-conspirators are criminals and liars, and thus lack credibility, is fucking laughable. Everyone in his inner circle is a lying criminal. You can’t find someone wholesome and honest to testify against trump because those people stayed the fuck away from his criminal shit. What a fucking tautology.
I guess I was a little imprecise when I said conviction. Yes, you could probably get a conviction in a court of law. Trump isn't in a court of law, he's in the court of public opinion, and the mechanism to get the conviction in the court of public opinion is impeachment. Basically, I don't really see how the Cohen stuff really changes anything.
Pour like Hemingway's last call.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by seathesee » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:12 pm

Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:54 pm
seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:43 pm i think trump getting impeached would not be good for the democrat party.
BTW, what did you mean by this?
historically, impeachment proceedings tend to have a negative impact on the approval of the party pushing for impeachment--that was the case for the johnson and clinton impeachments, at least. we probably dont have a big enough sample size, and it is trump, but thats what has happened thus far.

probably more importantly, though, it gives republicans a chance to put someone forward who is more palatable to the nation at large, and if the democrats run someone far left, which looks about 50/50 at this point, republicans could put up a moderate and capture a lot of voters who would turn their nose up at trump.
with love, your good friend, seathesee

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Dantes » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:24 pm

seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:12 pm
Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:54 pm
seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:43 pm i think trump getting impeached would not be good for the democrat party.
BTW, what did you mean by this?
historically, impeachment proceedings tend to have a negative impact on the approval of the party pushing for impeachment--that was the case for the johnson and clinton impeachments, at least. we probably dont have a big enough sample size, and it is trump, but thats what has happened thus far.

probably more importantly, though, it gives republicans a chance to put someone forward who is more palatable to the nation at large, and if the democrats run someone far left, which looks about 50/50 at this point, republicans could put up a moderate and capture a lot of voters who would turn their nose up at trump.
Okay, that makes sense. If the Republicans ran someone like Kasich I'd definitely be voting for him over just about anyone that's been mentioned on the left.

I sincerely doubt the Republicans could nominate someone more reasonable though. More likely they'd nominate Fucking Fuck Ted Fucking Cruz to Fucking Hell in a Trump suit.

EDIT: Damnation! You already implemented that filter?!?! :evil:
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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Yoss » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:48 pm

Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:01 pm
Yoss wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:39 pm I think Cohen is a scumbag piece of shit, but so is trump, and the latter surrounded himself with those of a similar ilk and they will be his undoing

Complaining that Trump’s co-conspirators are criminals and liars, and thus lack credibility, is fucking laughable. Everyone in his inner circle is a lying criminal. You can’t find someone wholesome and honest to testify against trump because those people stayed the fuck away from his criminal shit. What a fucking tautology.
I guess I was a little imprecise when I said conviction. Yes, you could probably get a conviction in a court of law. Trump isn't in a court of law, he's in the court of public opinion, and the mechanism to get the conviction in the court of public opinion is impeachment. Basically, I don't really see how the Cohen stuff really changes anything.
It’s “just give trump his wall” all over again

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by KingRamz » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:02 pm

Nah, I think Dantes is right. See, Congress has to move, and they aren't going to. This shit has all come out as like a slow dribble. I think it might've been different if everything we know now had dropped in January 2017, but as it is, the water's heating up slowly enough that the frog hasn't noticed.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Dantes » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:34 pm

Yoss wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:48 pm
Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:01 pm
Yoss wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:39 pm I think Cohen is a scumbag piece of shit, but so is trump, and the latter surrounded himself with those of a similar ilk and they will be his undoing

Complaining that Trump’s co-conspirators are criminals and liars, and thus lack credibility, is fucking laughable. Everyone in his inner circle is a lying criminal. You can’t find someone wholesome and honest to testify against trump because those people stayed the fuck away from his criminal shit. What a fucking tautology.
I guess I was a little imprecise when I said conviction. Yes, you could probably get a conviction in a court of law. Trump isn't in a court of law, he's in the court of public opinion, and the mechanism to get the conviction in the court of public opinion is impeachment. Basically, I don't really see how the Cohen stuff really changes anything.
It’s “just give trump his wall” all over again
No, this is something different.

But I am right about the wall. Look at all The Federalist society has gotten out of Trump by accommodating him. They're getting a conservative judiciary they could only dream of. If Schumer had given Trump the wall (or anything Trump could call the wall) Schumer could have extracted some real concessions. Trump is entirely transactional, not ideological. He's a horse trader and he was willing to trade. Sure it sucks having him as President, but there was clearly a way to move your agenda forward even with him in the office. This entire 'resistance' thing has been terribly short sighted (of course, the Mid Terms may prove me to be embarrassingly wrong here).
Pour like Hemingway's last call.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Hoshi » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:07 am

seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 6:43 pm i think trump getting impeached would not be good for the democrat party.
If your name is trolling me this hard, I can't imagine what it'll do to poor Crunchums

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Rylinks » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:09 am

sea is just informing us that he's become a bishop

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Dantes » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:34 am

Rylinks wrote: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:09 am sea is just informing us that he's become a bishop
I'm confused. Why wouldn't you just promote to queen?
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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Hoshi » Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:01 am

Dantes wrote: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:34 am
Rylinks wrote: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:09 am sea is just informing us that he's become a bishop
I'm confused. Why wouldn't you just promote to queen?
Well in 2D chess, yes.

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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Grakthis » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:47 pm

Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:01 pm
Yoss wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:39 pm I think Cohen is a scumbag piece of shit, but so is trump, and the latter surrounded himself with those of a similar ilk and they will be his undoing

Complaining that Trump’s co-conspirators are criminals and liars, and thus lack credibility, is fucking laughable. Everyone in his inner circle is a lying criminal. You can’t find someone wholesome and honest to testify against trump because those people stayed the fuck away from his criminal shit. What a fucking tautology.
I guess I was a little imprecise when I said conviction. Yes, you could probably get a conviction in a court of law. Trump isn't in a court of law, he's in the court of public opinion, and the mechanism to get the conviction in the court of public opinion is impeachment. Basically, I don't really see how the Cohen stuff really changes anything.
Democrats are favored to win the House. 70-75% are the popular estimates. Trump is about 60/40 getting impeached if the Democrats do win, just based on the evidence Cohen already has. I mean, we know essentially for a fact at this point that Trump had two affairs with his wife, then during the campaign, paid women to be silent about those affairs expressly for the purpose of not hurting his presidential campaign. And we know he leveraged another person (Cohen) to do this with his own money with the expectation of being paid back, which is a clear and intentional campaign violation. Then later, this same man, used his position with Trump to profit to the tune of millions of dollars by selling access to the President.

if we knew literally NOTHING ELSE besides that, Trump would be the most corrupt Western leader in the modern era. But that's not even the BEGINNING of what we know. We're still in the intro cinematic. And we're still well past the point where any other US leader would have stepped down.

The odds on Trump getting impeached according to most overseas betting services are in the 35-45% range. And there are still likely to be 2-3 more big bomb shells between now and November AT LEAST as big as what we already know. Now, yes, the odds of those are already baked into the 35-45% numbers, but when they materialize you'll see those numbers move up above 50%.

Now, the real question is, can he get convicted? Unsure. If things go badly enough for Republicans, Mitch may just decide they are fucked anyways and try to get done what they can get done. If things just BARELY go badly for them, they may think that throwing Trump under the buss is better than having Trump push them out of any competitiveness for 2020.

But the Cohen stuff absolutely changed things. Betting markets shifted as much as 10% on the news.
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Re: POLITICS MOTHERFUCKER

Post by Grakthis » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:53 pm

Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:24 pm
seathesee wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:12 pm
Dantes wrote: Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:54 pm

BTW, what did you mean by this?
historically, impeachment proceedings tend to have a negative impact on the approval of the party pushing for impeachment--that was the case for the johnson and clinton impeachments, at least. we probably dont have a big enough sample size, and it is trump, but thats what has happened thus far.

probably more importantly, though, it gives republicans a chance to put someone forward who is more palatable to the nation at large, and if the democrats run someone far left, which looks about 50/50 at this point, republicans could put up a moderate and capture a lot of voters who would turn their nose up at trump.
Okay, that makes sense. If the Republicans ran someone like Kasich I'd definitely be voting for him over just about anyone that's been mentioned on the left.

I sincerely doubt the Republicans could nominate someone more reasonable though. More likely they'd nominate Fucking Fuck Ted Fucking Cruz to Fucking Hell in a Trump suit.

EDIT: Damnation! You already implemented that filter?!?! :evil:
Basically everything Sea said here is wrong and out of touch with political reality.

The odds on favorites according to every relevant analyst for the Democratic Party are super boring old white guys with experience and liberal credentials who lean center left.

Also, Sea doesn't know the difference between impeachment and conviction, and doesn't understand voter identity as a concept and how strong it is. The reason the Clinton impeachment went badly for Republicans in the short term is because it was idiotic. Only 1/3rd of Americans thought it was a good idea. Bill had a POSITIVE APPROVAL RATING going into the impeachment and his approval rating WENT UP from there.

And in the long term, Republicans won the next presidential election after that by running on a platform of family values.

Like, you couldn't have come up with a position that was more counter factual than Sea's if you had literally been researching the data to TRY to come up with nonsense bullshit just the jebait someone.
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