sports

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seathesee
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:25 am

haliburton might be better than fox
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:34 am

every time i watch the kings i imagine Bagley has "Not Dončić" on the back of his jersey
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:43 am

Crunchums wrote:the nba starts tomorrow; time to predict the west

lakers

nuggets <-- looking a bit too high
clippers
jazz <-- i am confused

blazers <-- looking a bit too high
rockets (assuming they keep Harden)
mavericks
suns

warriors
pelicans
spurs

grizzlies
kings <-- looking a bit too low
wolves

thunder
so maybe now i would think like

lakers
clippers

rockets
suns
nuggets
mavericks
jazz
blazers

warriors
pelicans
spurs
kings

grizzlies
wolves
thunder
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:58 pm

Crunchums wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:34 am every time i watch the kings i imagine Bagley has "Not Dončić" on the back of his jersey
hmmmm. we dont say the d-word when we talk about bagley.
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Thu Jan 07, 2021 6:04 pm

Crunchums wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:43 am lakers
clippers

rockets
suns
nuggets
mavericks
jazz
blazers

warriors
pelicans
spurs
kings

grizzlies
wolves
thunder
i think id bump the suns into the bottom of the first tier.

id drop the nuggets down to the third tier--i like the nuggets and i think theyll get it together before the end of the year, but ive watched them twice (once minus murray) and theyve looked pretty bad.

warriors go mid tier two i think. im pretty high on the warriors in general. i think people were sleeping on them after the klay injury. i experience the nba through the kings and the blazers, so some of this may be a bit of recentcy bias, but they looked really good those two games. draymond coming back opened up stephs game so much. wiseman looks like a real dude. paschall is turning into a really solid sixth man. if they can avoid injury, i see them around the 4 seed end of year.

i think you can safely drop the spurs to the bottom tier.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:59 pm

my logic pm the suns is if chris paul + the spare parts the thunder had last year = 5-7 in the west last year, chris paul + the actual good team the suns have this year should be at least the 5 seed this year

the nuggets - hard to buy that they'll drop lower than 7 given that they should be better this year (lost Jerami Grant, but eh). I could buy them being towards the bottom of the 2nd tier, though

warriors - their defense and andrew wiggins are so bad. they're like the blazers except with worse role players. i could buy them being at the bottom of the 2nd tier instead of the top of the 3rd

the spurs i like more at the bottom of the third tier than the top of the fourth. though maybe that's not fair to memphis, who would probably be at the bottom of the third tier if they were healthy
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Re: sports

Post by drk » Sat Jan 09, 2021 6:45 am

Hockey is starting soon! The divisions are weird - all the Canadian teams are in ones, and then the US is divided into thirds time zone-wise. I think Boston is the Penguin's biggest threat for the East, and they're probably the better team. That means potentially a good seed for the Pens though, and I think their defense is going to be so improved from later year as to be unrecognizable, despite the biggest changes being telling Justin Schultz and Jack Johnson not to come back.

A 56 game season means a bat start may damage that seeding hopes and the Pens have just proved they are not a fast-starting team by bowing out of the NHL bubble immediately this summer. Seattle's expansion draft also looms in the background of anything a team does this year.

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Re: sports

Post by haplo » Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:49 am

I can't wait to hear about all the "first time in franchise history" records Seattle sets just like with Vegas

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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:24 am

they re-did the divisions to be more geographical to minimize travel? sounds interesting
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:20 pm

Crunchums wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 7:59 pm warriors - their defense and andrew wiggins are so bad.
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Re: sports

Post by RawMeat » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:27 pm

On one hand. Fuck this expanded playoffs bullshit and fuck the nfl. On the other hand. In a different, life I'd already be so fucking wasted and halfway into my first fried turkey at the very idea of 6 WC games this weekend.

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Re: sports

Post by RawMeat » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:28 pm

I can't figure out what time the patriots play, though. I think something is wrong with my phone.

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Re: sports

Post by pterrus » Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:45 pm

RawMeat wrote: Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:28 pm I can't figure out what time the patriots play, though. I think something is wrong with my phone.
:cry:

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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:33 pm

i thought the added nfl wc games would be too much, but it sounds like everyone was pretty happy with it and it was a success.

im still down on the extra playoff round in the nba. it made sense for the bubble since you were cutting the season short without notice, and it was unfair to the teams who were still technically in contention. this year it just feels unfair to whatever teams hit the 7/8 seeds in their respective conferences. weve been moving more and more towards "the regular season doesnt matter much" and that seems like a bad trend for most of the parties involved.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:43 pm

the regular season mattering in the NFL is what makes it exciting. i still think the extra WC is dumb (and the 2 seed not getting a bye is rough)
the NBA regular season doesn't matter, and it's unnecessarily long because more games = more money
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:47 pm

Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:43 pm the NBA regular season doesn't matter, and it's unnecessarily long
oh man, i totally disagree with this. its a different test is all. the long season reflects the nature of the game itself.
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jan 11, 2021 5:49 pm

its just a what do you want out of your sports season type of thing.

ncaa basketball takes the nfl model, and nba basketball takes the mlb model. its weird to me that you take the mlb model, then try to undermine it with the play in games.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:01 pm

basketball is a low variance game. 7 and 8 seeds almost never win, and who the top 6 teams are is something you could figure out in a lot fewer games

NFL/MLB/NHL are all way higher variance, so sneaking into the playoffs actually matters because you've still got a shot

NBA games are way better when teams are going full throttle because there are actual stakes. most of the regular season is not like that
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Re: sports

Post by Rylinks » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:04 pm

a small playoff is an important part of the mlb model

e: like, way smaller than even a non-covid basketball season

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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:06 pm

Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:01 pm basketball is a low variance game.
i think this is not supported by the current standings and the bubble playoffs. what are you basing this on?
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:22 pm

seathesee wrote:
Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:01 pm basketball is a low variance game.
it is definitely lower variance than baseball, football, soccer, and hockey
i think this is not supported by the current standings and the bubble playoffs. what are you basing this on?
i'm not saying the regular season could be 10 games long, i'm saying it could be like 50-60something instead of 82
i wouldn't use the bubble playoffs as an example since that's not normal NBA basketball. but i don't see how it contradicts what i am saying. of 14 series:
3 were close matchups between evenly matched teams: nuggets/jazz, rockets/thunder, raptors/celtics
nuggets/clippers was weird
the heat beat the higher seeded bucks and celtics, but they looked like the better team in both of those series, so shrug
the other 8 series went the way you would expect
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:25 pm

Rylinks wrote:a small playoff is an important part of the mlb model
if i'm googling correctly, 16 of 30 teams make the mlb playoff, which is exactly the same as the NBA (at least before the NBA introduced play-in games)
but it's bo3 bo5 bo7 bo7 instead of 4x bo7

nfl: 14 (previously 12) of 32
nhl: 16 of 31
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Re: sports

Post by Rylinks » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:27 pm

Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:25 pm
Rylinks wrote:a small playoff is an important part of the mlb model
if i'm googling correctly, 16 of 30 teams make the mlb playoff, which is exactly the same as the NBA (at least before the NBA introduced play-in games)
but it's bo3 bo5 bo7 bo7 instead of 4x bo7

nfl: 14 (previously 12) of 32
nhl: 16 of 31
it's only 16 of 30 because of the covid-shortened season--normally it's 10 and the first games are a bo1

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Re: sports

Post by Rylinks » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:28 pm

2019:

Image

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Re: sports

Post by Doug » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:29 pm

Go Cards
It's your turn in Cthulhu Wars
It's your turn in Squirrel Wars
It's your turn in Demon Wars
It's your turn in Wall Street Wars

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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:33 pm

Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:22 pm it is definitely lower variance than baseball, football, soccer, and hockey
i understand your thesis. what are you basing it on?
Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:22 pm i wouldn't use the bubble playoffs as an example since that's not normal NBA basketball. but i don't see how it contradicts what i am saying.
im thinking specifically of the nuggets coming back from 3-1 deficits in two series, and both one seeds losing their first game. youre hypothetically looking at a drastically different post-season outcome if the playoffs used a bo1, bo3, or bo5 model. the variance is one of the reasons (i know money is always going to be an unstated reason and probably the overriding one) the nba lengthened playoff series in the 00s.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:41 pm

Rylinks wrote: it's only 16 of 30 because of the covid-shortened season--normally it's 10 and the first games are a bo1
ah
imo
1) that format makes sense for MLB
2) the 12 team format was good for the NFL, and I think the 14 team format is worse
3) I think the NBA and NHL's formats are bad
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:52 pm

seathesee wrote:
Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:22 pm it is definitely lower variance than baseball, football, soccer, and hockey
i understand your thesis. what are you basing it on?
the variance within an individual play/scoring event
a soccer player shoots, do they score? there aren't that many goals scored in soccer, so it's a huge swing
a football player fumbles, which team recovers? there aren't that many possessions in football, so it's a huge swing
two outs bases loaded - what happens at this at bat? there aren't that many runs scored in baseball, so it's a huge swing
whereas when an NBA player shoots, that shot is a much smaller percentage of the outcome. more possessions = more time for the better team to outplay the weaker team
Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:22 pm i wouldn't use the bubble playoffs as an example since that's not normal NBA basketball. but i don't see how it contradicts what i am saying.
im thinking specifically of the nuggets coming back from 3-1 deficits in two series, and both one seeds losing their first game. you're hypothetically looking at a drastically different post-season outcome if the playoffs used a bo1, bo3, or bo5 model. the variance is one of the reasons (i know money is always going to be an unstated reason and probably the overriding one) the nba lengthened playoff series in the 00s.
yes, bo7 is one of the reasons why the nba playoffs are low variance. that's what I'm saying: the NBA playoffs are low variance.
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:55 pm

Crunchums wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 6:52 pm yes, bo7 is one of the reasons why the nba playoffs are low variance. that's what I'm saying: the NBA playoffs are low variance.
we dont disagree on this tbc. i think the playoffs are low variance right now because of the long season with seeding implications and bo7 series straight through. it sounds like we dont disagree at all that the play in games are silly.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:00 pm

part of this is me being imprecise in what i am saying, so let me be more precise:
* one game of basketball is lower variance than one game of football, soccer, hockey, or baseball
* that + bo7 means that the NBA playoffs are low variance. 7/8 seeds almost never win
* you could fairly determine playoff spots with fewer than 82 games
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