sports

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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Tue May 31, 2022 10:44 pm

i think it's hard to criticize taking an open look against a historically good defense
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Tue May 31, 2022 10:57 pm

it wasnt that hard. i just yelled at my tv.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Tue May 31, 2022 11:11 pm

lol
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Wed Jun 01, 2022 2:45 pm

i don't know what to expect from this finals. maybe the warriors win comfortably because they're the warriors and the celtics shoot themselves in the foot a lot, or maybe the celtics win comfortably because they're just a much better team that's looked shakier because they've had a harder path to the finals. or maybe it'll be a tight series between two evenly matched teams. idk
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:12 pm

im struggling a bit too. these are the things i think are highly relevant:

-warriors have a huge rest advantage. both teams are banged up right now, but the celtice seem like they have more lingering playthroughable injuries.

-celtics are the only team in the nba to have a positive record against the warriors in the kerr era.

-warriors are deeper, i think.

-warriors have more guys that can put up points.

-the celtics dont have many weak defensive points.

-game seven was really interesting re: the celtics, but could go either way. they almost folded down the stretch. this could show an overall mental weakness, or it could be the game they needed to learn from and get out of the way, and now they have grown and are stronger heading into the final test.

i dunno. it should be fun. these teams seem pretty well matched. i want to say warriors in 6, but i think its close enough the home court might matter in game 6 with the celtics facing elimination. ill guess warriors in 7.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:28 pm

celtics are younger and they got less rest but they still just got 3-4 days off. but the health of marcus and time lord are big question marks

i can't really buy "they needed to learn from and get out of the way" when they didn't learn from the previous times

i'm thinking warriors in 6 or 7 because the funks the celtics go through where they play terribly for a bit will cost them the series
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:34 pm

if smarts injured not hurt, my confidence in the warriors gets very close to 100%
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:51 pm

i feel you. he's only 28 though
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:35 pm

the prediction-sphere on this series is pretty interesting.

538s model, which has been pretty solid this year, gives boston an 80% chance of winning.

warriors are the favorites in vegas. i heard that around 85% of the bets are on the warriors. ive also heard that the professional, smart, whatever, bettors are taking boston.

makes me a bit worried im falling into the obvious trap with my prediction. im certainly warriors biased.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:45 pm

seathesee wrote:the professional, smart, whatever, bettors
the "sharps"
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Fri Jun 03, 2022 12:28 am

yes! them!
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Fri Jun 03, 2022 1:38 am

steph going 6 of 8 from 3 in the first quarter and the celtics only being down by 4 at the end of the quarter seems kind of worrying for the warriors.

maybe he will just do it every quarter.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:45 am

that was wild and so fun
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:53 am

Kyrie: "Right now I think it would be nice if we had someone that was a 15-year vet...
Image
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:55 am

boston probably isn't going to shot 21/41 (51.2%) from three again, though
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Fri Jun 03, 2022 4:01 am

i think that, oddly, the warriors are a better matchup for the celtics than the bucks and the heat
the celtics are still good in tough physical games, but their defensive strengths are much more applicable to dealing with quickness and movement, and their offense is much more comfortable with more space

to me the most encouraging things are
1) marcus and rob looked mobile
2) the celtics probably aren't going to leave curry wide open multiple times again
3) the celtics were absolutely fucking dialed in. no bewildering moments, and even when they went down they kept coming. i think this is another area where things are easier vs the warriors than vs the bucks and heat
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Fri Jun 03, 2022 4:33 am

it was an amazing game. im not exactly sure what to take away from this game, because i have a hard time believing boston is going to be able to replicate that offensive performance.

they shot 51% from 3 on 41 attempts. i don’t feel like the warriors played that poor of defense. from memory (haven’t seen the stats on it) most of those were contested.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:21 am

to me it felt like a lot of them were good looks, but the celtics are really not a great 3-point shooting team and i wouldn't exect them to make that many even with really good shot quality
and i mean even great 3-point shooting teams probably don't shoot 51% very often
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:47 am

i think that’s the best possession ive ever seen
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:51 am

which one? the 7 point one?
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Thu Jun 09, 2022 4:44 pm

Crunchums wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:51 am which one? the 7 point one?
yeah. pretty sure ive never seen a 7 point possession before. i wouldn’t be surprised if 3->flagrant foul->made free throw->3 has never occurred in the history of the nba.
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jun 09, 2022 5:21 pm

that was a weird looking play - it looked like curry kicked out his leg sideways in order to seek out that contact. but then again curry often does weird sideways falling stuff after shooting a 3? but then again again maybe he only does that in the hopes of getting foul calls. not trying to complain, just i don't know what to make of it - should that be a flagrant by the rules?
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Thu Jun 09, 2022 5:22 pm

Steph is so good it's crazy
whenever the warriors are on offense I'm not following the ball, I'm following him
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:27 pm

Crunchums wrote: Thu Jun 09, 2022 5:21 pm that was a weird looking play - it looked like curry kicked out his leg sideways in order to seek out that contact. but then again curry often does weird sideways falling stuff after shooting a 3? but then again again maybe he only does that in the hopes of getting foul calls. not trying to complain, just i don't know what to make of it - should that be a flagrant by the rules?
it looked like a foul to me, and van gundy, who i think is pretty good, was very insistent that is a flagrant foul under the current rules and how games tend to be called.

it looked to me like hortford slid his leg out when steph jumped in such a way that it was likely steph would land on his foot. its my understanding that is a very dangerous play because it can lead to an ankle roll pretty easily. i thought it was a good call.
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:29 pm

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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:23 am

a PSA PSA
steph.png
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:30 am

are the colored boxes percentile among league or something else?
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:15 am

among other players at the same position, yeah
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Re: sports

Post by Crunchums » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:37 am

that was frustrating to watch
Cs O just not good enough
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Re: sports

Post by seathesee » Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:42 pm

i think the celtics are just not deep enough to win this thing if derrick white, grant williams, and pritchard are not going to show up
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