slatestarcodex

Probably what *this* should be called.
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Shiny Days
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Shiny Days » Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:18 am

Crunchums wrote:
A friend asked me why I was spending so long on this post, and I responded something like "If I make it long enough, maybe nobody will read it, and then I will get credit for writing an important and well-researched post, but nobody will know what's in it and so nobody will get angry at me". This is obviously not the most virtuous way of thinking about things.
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:07 am

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-august
26: The Cox-Zucker machine is an algorithm for determining "if a given set of sections provides a basis for the Mordell–Weil group of a [certain type of] elliptic surface". It’s a real mathematical finding - but it owes its genesis to Professor Cox and Professor Zucker meeting during grad school, realizing that any result with both their names on it would be “remarkably obscene”, and deliberately working together on unsolved problems until they found something.
:lol:
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Blissful » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:04 am

rest in power, Dr Zucker
you did great things for science
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:08 pm

the Wall Street Journal opinion section is always up for slathering itself in glue and rolling around in a haystack until it becomes the straw man everyone else warned you about
heh
7. Vaccination probably doesn’t change the per-symptomatic-case risk of Long COVID much
gfdi
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Rylinks » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:09 pm

that's some good evidence that long covid isn't real

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Ashenai
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Ashenai » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:18 pm

vaccination drastically reduces the chance of symptomatic covid, though, doesn't it?

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Khaos » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:18 pm

yes

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:25 pm

yeah the actual risk isn't that big if you're vaccinated, but it is still not the conclusion the i was hoping for
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Khaos » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:29 pm

in alberta, we're 60% vaccinated (70% if you don't include kids) and yet our intensive care units are only 17% fully vaccinated people (with the caveat that they are mostly people with other health complications - or so i'm told)

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Jeb Bush 2012 » Thu Sep 02, 2021 7:31 pm

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 6/fulltext
We found that the odds of having symptoms for 28 days or more after post-vaccination infection were approximately halved by having two vaccine doses. This result suggests that the risk of long COVID is reduced in individuals who have received double vaccination, when additionally considering the already documented reduced risk of infection overall.2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
I don't think we really know much about this but "Vaccination probably doesn’t change the per-symptomatic-case risk of Long COVID much" is not a defensible characterisation of what we currently know

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Doug » Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:48 pm

This is the first time I've heard of "long Covid"
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Rylinks » Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:52 pm

a short skirt and a looooooooong

chain of epistemic reasoning leading to proper safety precautions during the covid pandemic

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Doug » Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:53 pm

It doesn't sound as good as long pig
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Blissful » Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:27 pm

Rylinks wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:52 pm a short skirt and a looooooooong

chain of epistemic reasoning leading to proper safety precautions during the covid pandemic
lol
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Blissful » Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:28 pm

XCOM 2: Long Covid of The Chosen
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by pterrus » Sat Sep 04, 2021 3:45 pm

Blissful wrote: Sat Sep 04, 2021 12:28 pm XCOM 2: Long Covid of The Chosen
Symptoms include addiction, xenophobia, and paranoia about 90% probabilities.

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:39 pm

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/t ... y-in-three
reminds me of that R&M episode with the decoys
also sea's "two stories" thing
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by pterrus » Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:38 am

That's a good article. Rationality is real hard.

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Ashenai » Tue Sep 07, 2021 7:40 am

Image


that trend line really is amazing though

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Tue Sep 07, 2021 3:30 pm

yeah, lol
Wait, there’s been a National Poison Data System this whole time? Then how come we’re trying to interpret oracular pronouncements by random Oklahoma doctors? Why do we even HAVE a National Poison Data System if we’re not going to use it the one time we as a nation really want systematic data on poison? Is it because of how bad their trend-line-drawing practices are?
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:41 pm

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/b ... ut-mindset
They founded a group called the Center For Applied Rationality (aka “CFAR”, yes, it’s a pun)
:omg:
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Rylinks » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:42 pm

this is up there with the beatles for puns i should have realized earlier

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Blissful » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:21 am

Rylinks wrote: Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:42 pmthe beatles
holy SHIT
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:07 am

i don't get that one
it's like beetles, but they spelled it "beat" instead (like a drum beat) - is there more to it than that?
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Blissful » Thu Sep 30, 2021 7:50 am

Sandy "Clay" Loam presents: The Peatles
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Mon Oct 11, 2021 1:55 pm

I realize this is not really as sober an argument as some of the others, but those others were my attempts to make sober arguments. This is the one I actually believe.
( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/p ... aving-kids )
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Ashenai » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:19 pm

Yeah I'm not remotely buying any of this. What's going on here is that climate change is a socially acceptable (even laudable!) excuse you can give for not having kids. Those are in short supply!

Say you're a young person, and you don't want kids. Lots of people are like that, all with various reasons. But when your parents or your friends or colleagues or even strangers ask you why not, what are you going to tell them?
1) I'm not ready to settle down, and I wanna keep partying and having casual sex (securities fraud) for now.
2) I've heard pregnancy really sucks and can fuck up your body, I don't like that.
3) I hate kids.
4) THE ENVIRONMENT! It's actually really irresponsible to have kids when the world is going to shit.

Only one of those answers makes you look like a good, selfless and mature person. In polls, this is called the social desirability bias: respondents will sometimes lie and give the answer that makes them look good.

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Crunchums » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:29 pm

definitely true for some (perhaps most) of the people who use climate change as a reason for not having kids
but there are non-zero people in the world for who it's an actual reason that they would consider, and that's who the article is for
and yeah it's probably not that many people, but the rationalist community almost certainly has a disproportionate amount of them (scrupulosity etc), so i don't think he's crazy for writing that article
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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Ashenai » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:32 pm

Yeah I took the devil's advocate position because it's more fun, I don't mind the article. And climate anxiety is real, pushing back against it is helpful in any case, even if it doesn't convince anyone to have kids.

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Re: slatestarcodex

Post by Jeb Bush 2012 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:10 am

Ashenai wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:19 pm Say you're a young person, and you don't want kids. Lots of people are like that, all with various reasons. But when your parents or your friends or colleagues or even strangers ask you why not, what are you going to tell them?
I mostly don't buy this because I think the people who make this conversation difficult and the people who find extreme climate doomerism appealing are basically disjoint sets

I do agree that it's mostly cheap talk though

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