the battletoads strategyCrunchums wrote:A friend asked me why I was spending so long on this post, and I responded something like "If I make it long enough, maybe nobody will read it, and then I will get credit for writing an important and well-researched post, but nobody will know what's in it and so nobody will get angry at me". This is obviously not the most virtuous way of thinking about things.
slatestarcodex
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- ...but history refused to change
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Re: slatestarcodex
Re: slatestarcodex
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-august
26: The Cox-Zucker machine is an algorithm for determining "if a given set of sections provides a basis for the Mordell–Weil group of a [certain type of] elliptic surface". It’s a real mathematical finding - but it owes its genesis to Professor Cox and Professor Zucker meeting during grad school, realizing that any result with both their names on it would be “remarkably obscene”, and deliberately working together on unsolved problems until they found something.
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Re: slatestarcodex
hehthe Wall Street Journal opinion section is always up for slathering itself in glue and rolling around in a haystack until it becomes the straw man everyone else warned you about
gfdi7. Vaccination probably doesn’t change the per-symptomatic-case risk of Long COVID much
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- her skirt got quite a lot smaller,
but her heart is still the same
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Re: slatestarcodex
that's some good evidence that long covid isn't real
Re: slatestarcodex
vaccination drastically reduces the chance of symptomatic covid, though, doesn't it?
Re: slatestarcodex
yeah the actual risk isn't that big if you're vaccinated, but it is still not the conclusion the i was hoping for
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Re: slatestarcodex
in alberta, we're 60% vaccinated (70% if you don't include kids) and yet our intensive care units are only 17% fully vaccinated people (with the caveat that they are mostly people with other health complications - or so i'm told)
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- Posting Automaton
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Re: slatestarcodex
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 6/fulltext
I don't think we really know much about this but "Vaccination probably doesn’t change the per-symptomatic-case risk of Long COVID much" is not a defensible characterisation of what we currently knowWe found that the odds of having symptoms for 28 days or more after post-vaccination infection were approximately halved by having two vaccine doses. This result suggests that the risk of long COVID is reduced in individuals who have received double vaccination, when additionally considering the already documented reduced risk of infection overall.2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Re: slatestarcodex
This is the first time I've heard of "long Covid"
It's your turn in Cthulhu Wars
It's your turn in Squirrel Wars
It's your turn in Demon Wars
It's your turn in Wall Street Wars
http://devilsbiscuit.com/
It's your turn in Squirrel Wars
It's your turn in Demon Wars
It's your turn in Wall Street Wars
http://devilsbiscuit.com/
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but her heart is still the same
size it was before - Posts: 12359
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Re: slatestarcodex
a short skirt and a looooooooong
chain of epistemic reasoning leading to proper safety precautions during the covid pandemic
chain of epistemic reasoning leading to proper safety precautions during the covid pandemic
Re: slatestarcodex
It doesn't sound as good as long pig
It's your turn in Cthulhu Wars
It's your turn in Squirrel Wars
It's your turn in Demon Wars
It's your turn in Wall Street Wars
http://devilsbiscuit.com/
It's your turn in Squirrel Wars
It's your turn in Demon Wars
It's your turn in Wall Street Wars
http://devilsbiscuit.com/
Re: slatestarcodex
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/t ... y-in-three
reminds me of that R&M episode with the decoys
also sea's "two stories" thing
reminds me of that R&M episode with the decoys
also sea's "two stories" thing
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Re: slatestarcodex
That's a good article. Rationality is real hard.
Re: slatestarcodex
that trend line really is amazing though
Re: slatestarcodex
yeah, lol
Wait, there’s been a National Poison Data System this whole time? Then how come we’re trying to interpret oracular pronouncements by random Oklahoma doctors? Why do we even HAVE a National Poison Data System if we’re not going to use it the one time we as a nation really want systematic data on poison? Is it because of how bad their trend-line-drawing practices are?
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Re: slatestarcodex
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/b ... ut-mindset
They founded a group called the Center For Applied Rationality (aka “CFAR”, yes, it’s a pun)
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size it was before - Posts: 12359
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Re: slatestarcodex
this is up there with the beatles for puns i should have realized earlier
Re: slatestarcodex
i don't get that one
it's like beetles, but they spelled it "beat" instead (like a drum beat) - is there more to it than that?
it's like beetles, but they spelled it "beat" instead (like a drum beat) - is there more to it than that?
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Re: slatestarcodex
( https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/p ... aving-kids )I realize this is not really as sober an argument as some of the others, but those others were my attempts to make sober arguments. This is the one I actually believe.
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Re: slatestarcodex
Yeah I'm not remotely buying any of this. What's going on here is that climate change is a socially acceptable (even laudable!) excuse you can give for not having kids. Those are in short supply!
Say you're a young person, and you don't want kids. Lots of people are like that, all with various reasons. But when your parents or your friends or colleagues or even strangers ask you why not, what are you going to tell them?
1) I'm not ready to settle down, and I wanna keep partying and having casual sex (securities fraud) for now.
2) I've heard pregnancy really sucks and can fuck up your body, I don't like that.
3) I hate kids.
4) THE ENVIRONMENT! It's actually really irresponsible to have kids when the world is going to shit.
Only one of those answers makes you look like a good, selfless and mature person. In polls, this is called the social desirability bias: respondents will sometimes lie and give the answer that makes them look good.
Say you're a young person, and you don't want kids. Lots of people are like that, all with various reasons. But when your parents or your friends or colleagues or even strangers ask you why not, what are you going to tell them?
1) I'm not ready to settle down, and I wanna keep partying and having casual sex (securities fraud) for now.
2) I've heard pregnancy really sucks and can fuck up your body, I don't like that.
3) I hate kids.
4) THE ENVIRONMENT! It's actually really irresponsible to have kids when the world is going to shit.
Only one of those answers makes you look like a good, selfless and mature person. In polls, this is called the social desirability bias: respondents will sometimes lie and give the answer that makes them look good.
Re: slatestarcodex
definitely true for some (perhaps most) of the people who use climate change as a reason for not having kids
but there are non-zero people in the world for who it's an actual reason that they would consider, and that's who the article is for
and yeah it's probably not that many people, but the rationalist community almost certainly has a disproportionate amount of them (scrupulosity etc), so i don't think he's crazy for writing that article
but there are non-zero people in the world for who it's an actual reason that they would consider, and that's who the article is for
and yeah it's probably not that many people, but the rationalist community almost certainly has a disproportionate amount of them (scrupulosity etc), so i don't think he's crazy for writing that article
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Re: slatestarcodex
Yeah I took the devil's advocate position because it's more fun, I don't mind the article. And climate anxiety is real, pushing back against it is helpful in any case, even if it doesn't convince anyone to have kids.
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Re: slatestarcodex
I mostly don't buy this because I think the people who make this conversation difficult and the people who find extreme climate doomerism appealing are basically disjoint sets
I do agree that it's mostly cheap talk though